Actual result
D+24.4
Final polls said
D+29.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+31.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+27.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+31.6 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | D+39.0 | 14.6 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-28 | 586 | D+27.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-18 | 597 | D+32.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-04 | 589 | D+38.0 | 14 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2004-10-01 | 957 | D+39.0 | 15 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 687 | D+36.0 | 12 |