Actual result
D+31.1
Final polls said
D+37.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+31.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+31.1 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | D+37.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | D+24.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 2004-10-25 | 455 | D+37.0 | 6 |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. | 2004-10-03 | 809 | D+24.0 | 7 |