Actual result
R+13.3
Final polls said
R+20.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market Research Institute Inc. | R+17.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+19.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+21.1 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 690 | R+19.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 675 | R+26.0 | 13 |
| Market Research Institute Inc. | 2004-10-24 | 553 | R+17.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-17 | 667 | R+18.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 677 | R+25.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-08 | 655 | R+20.0 | 7 |