Actual result
R+32.5
Final polls said
R+35.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+34.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+34.1 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+36.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | R+26.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+40.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | R+40.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+22.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-10-30 | 957 | R+36.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2004-10-29 | 600 | R+40.0 | 8 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-27 | 617 | R+40.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-10-26 | 758 | R+39.0 | 7 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-20 | 617 | R+33.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2004-10-16 | 400 | R+26.0 | 6 |
| Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 2004-10-03 | 617 | R+35.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2004-09-30 | 538 | R+41.0 | 9 |
| American Research Group | 2004-09-16 | 600 | R+43.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-15 | 500 | R+22.0 | 10 |