Actual result
D+25.9
Final polls said
D+26.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+24.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+24.2 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+24.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+24.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Belden Russonello | D+34.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+12.0 | 13.9 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-30 | 603 | D+24.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2004-10-26 | 600 | D+23.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-26 | 625 | D+24.0 | 2 |
| Belden Russonello | 2004-10-18 | 600 | D+34.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-17 | 625 | D+27.0 | 1 |
| Belden Russonello | 2004-09-24 | 600 | D+26.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-09-14 | 500 | D+12.0 | 14 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-09-13 | 625 | D+20.0 | 6 |