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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Oklahoma Senate
In the 2004 Oklahoma Senate race, Tom Coburn (R) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
R+11.5
Final polls said
R+2.6
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | R+5.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | SoonerPoll.com | R+1.2 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Basswood Research | R+1.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Global Strategy Group | D+1.0 | 12.5 | ✗ |
| 8 | Consumer Logic | D+7.0 | 18.5 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
26 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-294
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates2004-10-257
WPA Intelligence2004-10-239
SoonerPoll.com2004-10-2010
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2004-10-207
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Oklahoma Senate race?
Tom Coburn (R) won, by about 11.5 points (R+11.5).
When was the 2004 Oklahoma Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.