Actual result
R+11.5
Final polls said
R+2.6
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | R+5.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+2.6 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | SoonerPoll.com | R+1.2 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Basswood Research | R+1.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Global Strategy Group | D+1.0 | 12.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | Consumer Logic | D+7.0 | 18.5 | ✗ |
Polls (26)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-29 | 656 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2004-10-25 | 500 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-10-23 | 500 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2004-10-20 | 500 | R+1.2 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2004-10-20 | 500 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-19 | 625 | R+6.0 | 6 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-10-19 | 600 | D+1.0 | 13 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-10-16 | 500 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Consumer Logic | 2004-10-16 | 753 | D+7.0 | 19 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2004-10-14 | 500 | D+2.7 | 14 |
| Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates | 2004-10-10 | 500 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-10-09 | 500 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2004-10-07 | 500 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-05 | 609 | R+2.0 | 10 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-10-02 | 500 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2004-09-29 | 553 | D+6.8 | 18 |
| Basswood Research | 2004-09-27 | 500 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-09-25 | 500 | D+5.0 | 17 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2004-09-23 | 500 | D+2.8 | 14 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-21 | 610 | EVEN | 12 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2004-09-21 | 600 | D+4.0 | 16 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-09-18 | 500 | D+1.0 | 13 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2004-09-16 | 500 | D+7.0 | 19 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-09-11 | 500 | D+2.0 | 14 |
| Basswood Research | 2004-09-09 | 500 | EVEN | 12 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2004-09-03 | 500 | R+6.0 | 6 |