Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+13.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+12.2 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+14.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | FM3 Research | D+15.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mellman Group | D+16.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elway Research | D+17.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-30 | 622 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2004-10-25 | 800 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-24 | 618 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-16 | 640 | D+18.0 | 6 |
| Elway Research | 2004-10-15 | 405 | D+17.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-10-03 | 636 | D+19.0 | 7 |
| FM3 Research | 2004-09-28 | 1000 | D+15.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2004-09-20 | 624 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| Elway Research | 2004-09-18 | 405 | D+20.0 | 8 |
| Mellman Group | 2004-09-10 | 600 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| FM3 Research | 2004-09-09 | 1000 | D+13.0 | 1 |