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Toss-up · 2004 Senate
Washington Senate
In the 2004 Washington Senate race, Patty Murray (D) won by about 12 points.
Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+13.8
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+14.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | FM3 Research | D+15.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | D+16.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elway Research | D+17.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyUSA2004-10-306
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2004-10-252
SurveyUSA2004-10-242
SurveyUSA2004-10-166
Elway Research2004-10-155
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2004 Washington Senate race?
Patty Murray (D) won, by about 12.2 points (D+12.2).
When was the 2004 Washington Senate election held?
It was held in November 2004.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.