Actual result
R+7.4
Final polls said
R+4.1
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+7.4 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Dittman Research | R+6.1 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+5.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Alaska Survey Research | R+11.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Craciun Research Group | EVEN | 7.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Hellenthal & Associates | D+0.7 | 8.1 | ✗ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dittman Research | 2006-11-04 | 613 | R+6.1 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-02 | 500 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-29 | 500 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Dittman Research | 2006-10-21 | 510 | R+9.0 | 2 |
| Hellenthal & Associates | 2006-10-20 | 273 | D+0.7 | 8 |
| Craciun Research Group | 2006-10-11 | 418 | EVEN | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-09 | 500 | R+7.0 | 0 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2006-10-09 | 502 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2006-10-03 | 502 | R+11.0 | 4 |
| Dittman Research | 2006-09-25 | 507 | R+12.0 | 5 |