Actual result
R+15.9
Final polls said
R+17.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+16.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+17.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+18.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of South Alabama Polling Group | R+25.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-11-01 | 505 | R+16.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-30 | 602 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-16 | 517 | R+21.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-08 | 500 | R+18.0 | 2 |
| University of South Alabama Polling Group | 2006-10-02 | 612 | R+25.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-26 | 562 | R+16.0 | 0 |