VotePredictor
past elections

Alabama Governor

Lucy Baxley (D) vs Bob Riley (R)

Actual result
R+15.9
Final polls said
R+17.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.9
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1YouGovR+16.00.1
2SurveyUSAR+15.00.9
3VotePredictorR+17.92.1
4Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)R+18.02.1
5University of South Alabama Polling GroupR+25.09.1

Polls (6)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
YouGov2006-11-01505R+16.00
SurveyUSA2006-10-30602R+15.01
SurveyUSA2006-10-16517R+21.05
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2006-10-08500R+18.02
University of South Alabama Polling Group2006-10-02612R+25.09
SurveyUSA2006-09-26562R+16.00