Actual result
R+27.8
Final polls said
R+26.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+26.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+26.8 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+24.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+32.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+22.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Connecticut | R+22.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-11-01 | 401 | R+32.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-28 | 500 | R+22.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-27 | 926 | R+24.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-18 | 881 | R+26.0 | 2 |
| University of Connecticut | 2006-10-06 | 637 | R+22.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-02 | 500 | R+25.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-23 | 1181 | R+33.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-13 | 500 | R+28.0 | 0 |