Actual result
D+17.5
Final polls said
D+18.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+17.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+19.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+14.3 | 3.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 511 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-23 | 500 | D+19.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-14 | 541 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-26 | 500 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-12 | 590 | D+20.0 | 3 |