Actual result
D+20.3
Final polls said
D+25.2
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+20.1 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+24.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+25.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+25.4 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Suffolk University | D+27.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | KRC Research | D+13.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+29.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-31 | 664 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 799 | D+29.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 678 | D+25.4 | 5 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-10-24 | 585 | D+25.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-23 | 500 | D+24.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-22 | 623 | D+25.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2006-10-22 | 400 | D+27.0 | 7 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+22.4 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2006-10-10 | 400 | D+13.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-09 | 609 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2006-10-03 | 500 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-09-28 | 525 | D+25.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-23 | 500 | D+33.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-20 | 608 | D+39.0 | 19 |
| KRC Research | 2006-09-09 | 359 | D+13.0 | 7 |