Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+3.1
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+6.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | D+5.4 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+10.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+2.4 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gallup | D+12.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Potomac Incorporated | D+1.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | EVEN | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 11 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+1.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
Polls (20)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 663 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-02 | 625 | EVEN | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-01 | 694 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-11-01 | 500 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 802 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 2006-10-29 | 800 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2006-10-29 | 905 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 600 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 644 | D+5.4 | 1 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2006-10-24 | 1003 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-16 | 698 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 666 | D+10.9 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-10 | 500 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Gallup | 2006-09-29 | 678 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2006-09-26 | 606 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-24 | 625 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-18 | 522 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Potomac Incorporated | 2006-09-17 | 815 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-13 | 500 | D+7.0 | 0 |