Actual result
D+7.9
Final polls said
D+10.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+7.1 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+14.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Digital Research | D+17.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 638 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-30 | 500 | D+14.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-21 | 634 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Digital Research | 2006-10-20 | 600 | D+17.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-17 | 500 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-25 | 544 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-17 | 500 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-11 | 519 | D+1.0 | 7 |