Actual result
D+48.2
Final polls said
D+54.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+43.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+50.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Becker Institute | D+51.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+43.2 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+56.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | D+30.0 | 18.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-11-04 | 641 | D+56.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-10-31 | 663 | D+52.0 | 4 |
| Becker Institute | 2006-10-07 | 408 | D+51.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2006-09-26 | 557 | D+30.0 | 18 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-09-19 | 515 | D+55.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-17 | 458 | D+50.0 | 2 |