Actual result
D+33.0
Final polls said
D+37.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+29.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+36.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+29.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+25.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | SoonerPoll.com | D+43.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-02 | 488 | D+36.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-22 | 472 | D+32.0 | 1 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2006-10-21 | 547 | D+43.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-23 | 494 | D+31.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-16 | 500 | D+25.0 | 8 |