Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
R+9.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gallup | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+7.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+8.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fleming & Associates | R+9.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+10.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | R+12.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quest Research Group | R+14.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-11-01 | 625 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Fleming & Associates | 2006-10-29 | 401 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Quest Research Group | 2006-10-24 | 408 | R+14.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-19 | 500 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-19 | 625 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-04 | 500 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Quest Research Group | 2006-10-03 | 459 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Gallup | 2006-09-29 | 699 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-27 | 625 | R+16.0 | 14 |
| Brown University A. Alfred Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy | 2006-09-17 | 578 | R+12.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-13 | 500 | R+2.0 | 0 |