Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grove Insight | D+3.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+2.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+1.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+3.8 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Polling Company Inc. | R+9.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+14.0 | 18.0 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-30 | 643 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-10-18 | 400 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-14 | 509 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-10-03 | 442 | R+9.0 | 13 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-18 | 400 | R+14.0 | 18 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-16 | 590 | R+12.0 | 16 |
| Grove Insight | 2006-09-13 | 400 | D+3.0 | 1 |