Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+12.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+11.2 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence | D+10.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Wick Communications | D+15.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | D+19.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+25.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wick Communications | 2006-10-27 | 400 | D+15.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence | 2006-10-22 | 600 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Wick Communications | 2006-09-22 | 400 | D+18.0 | 6 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-09-20 | 400 | D+25.0 | 13 |
| Zimmerman & Associates/Marketing Intelligence | 2006-09-18 | 600 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2006-09-15 | 500 | D+19.0 | 7 |