Actual result
R+3.2
Final polls said
R+6.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | R+3.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+8.1 | 4.9 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-01 | 647 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 954 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-21 | 581 | R+10.0 | 7 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | R+8.0 | 5 |