Actual result
R+4.5
Final polls said
R+14.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.9 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | D+4.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | R+14.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Lake Research Partners | D+7.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-02 | 550 | R+14.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-14 | 581 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-05-31 | 448 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2006-05-14 | 400 | D+7.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-05-08 | 442 | EVEN | 5 |
| Moore Information Group | 2006-04-29 | 300 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2006-04-19 | 400 | R+2.0 | 3 |