Actual result
R+2.5
Final polls said
R+1.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Conquest Communications Group | R+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | RT Strategies | D+3.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 5 | Myers Research & Strategic Services | D+3.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-01 | 571 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 991 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Myers Research & Strategic Services | 2006-10-22 | 600 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-16 | 509 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-05 | 442 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| Conquest Communications Group | 2006-09-26 | 400 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Myers Research & Strategic Services | 2006-09-25 | 600 | EVEN | 2 |