Actual result
D+12.9
Final polls said
D+11.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+14.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+16.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+8.3 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+6.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | RT Strategies | D+5.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+5.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-30 | 589 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 983 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | EVEN | 13 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2006-10-06 | 442 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-05 | 400 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-23 | 482 | D+17.0 | 4 |