Actual result
EVEN
Final polls said
R+0.8
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+4.1
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Connecticut | R+2.0 | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+4.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+4.1 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | R+5.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 5 | RT Strategies | D+6.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+7.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Grove Insight | 2006-10-25 | 400 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 947 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-22 | 400 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| University of Connecticut | 2006-10-15 | 774 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-24 | 400 | R+14.0 | 14 |