Actual result
D+12.9
Final polls said
D+6.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | D+8.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+5.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Connecticut | D+4.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+0.1 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Viewpoint | R+10.0 | 22.9 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Connecticut | 2006-10-26 | 762 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 994 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Grove Insight | 2006-10-12 | 400 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 19 |
| American Viewpoint | 2006-10-01 | 400 | R+10.0 | 23 |