Actual result
R+0.1
Final polls said
D+3.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.8 | 1.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+2.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+3.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | EMC Research | D+11.0 | 11.2 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-11-01 | 450 | R+3.0 | 3 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1005 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| EMC Research | 2006-10-20 | 400 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| EMC Research | 2006-10-03 | 400 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| EMC Research | 2006-09-10 | 400 | D+8.0 | 8 |