Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
R+16.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+17.5 | 5.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-02 | 568 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-17 | 425 | R+21.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-23 | 491 | R+29.0 | 17 |