Actual result
D+11.8
Final polls said
D+14.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+11.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.8 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+7.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Selzer & Co. | D+21.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2006-11-02 | 515 | D+21.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-10-07 | 400 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | R+13.0 | 25 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2006-09-12 | 439 | D+7.0 | 5 |