VotePredictor
past elections

Iowa House

Dave Loebsack (D) vs James A. Leach (R)

Actual result
D+2.9
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.9
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorR+1.94.7
2RT StrategiesR+2.04.8

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
RT Strategies2006-10-25442R+2.05
RT Strategies2006-10-091000D+1.02