Actual result
D+7.5
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selzer & Co. | R+3.0 | 10.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.6 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. | 2006-10-17 | 468 | R+3.0 | 11 |