Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
D+2.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+0.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+0.4 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cooper & Secrest | R+1.0 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 4 | RT Strategies | D+6.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Louisville Courier-Journal | R+6.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-04 | 485 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-31 | 610 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1010 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Louisville Courier-Journal | 2006-10-24 | 669 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-17 | 536 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Cooper & Secrest | 2006-10-13 | 564 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | EVEN | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-27 | 529 | R+6.0 | 8 |