Actual result
R+4.0
Final polls said
R+17.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glengariff Group | R+8.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+14.6 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Basswood Research | R+17.0 | 13.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basswood Research | 2006-10-17 | 300 | R+17.0 | 13 |
| Glengariff Group | 2006-10-07 | 600 | R+8.0 | 4 |