Actual result
R+16.1
Final polls said
R+8.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+12.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | R+8.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-15 | 519 | R+8.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-25 | 520 | R+20.0 | 4 |