Actual result
R+8.0
Final polls said
R+6.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Zogby Analytics | R+10.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Feldman Group | R+3.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | RT Strategies | R+1.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Minneapolis Star Tribune | D+8.0 | 16.0 | ✗ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-02 | 698 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1056 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-23 | 738 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 13 |
| Minneapolis Star Tribune | 2006-10-08 | 506 | D+8.0 | 16 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-07 | 669 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Feldman Group | 2006-09-20 | 300 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-16 | 641 | R+9.0 | 1 |