Actual result
D+7.6
Final polls said
D+7.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+6.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | OnPoint | D+9.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | RT Strategies | D+9.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint | 2006-11-01 | 834 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1002 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| OnPoint | 2006-10-17 | 684 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 442 | D+11.0 | 3 |