Actual result
R+0.3
Final polls said
R+6.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OnPoint | R+1.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+2.5 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | RT Strategies | D+4.0 | 4.3 | ✗ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+16.0 | 15.7 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 999 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-16 | 400 | R+16.0 | 16 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| OnPoint | 2006-10-04 | 594 | R+1.0 | 1 |