Actual result
D+2.6
Final polls said
R+7.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+11.0
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+9.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+11.0 | 13.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Becker Institute | R+12.0 | 14.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+12.0 | 14.6 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-11-04 | 331 | R+9.0 | 12 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-10-31 | 340 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Becker Institute | 2006-10-07 | 200 | R+12.0 | 15 |
| American Research Group | 2006-10-07 | 442 | R+12.0 | 15 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-09-19 | 265 | R+19.0 | 22 |