Actual result
D+7.1
Final polls said
EVEN
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+2.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Becker Institute | D+9.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+3.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | EVEN | 7.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+2.3 | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+3.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-11-04 | 304 | EVEN | 7 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-10-31 | 320 | EVEN | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2006-10-31 | 619 | R+3.0 | 10 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 988 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2006-10-07 | 442 | R+6.0 | 13 |
| Becker Institute | 2006-10-07 | 200 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-09-19 | 248 | R+10.0 | 17 |