Actual result
R+1.5
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | R+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.4 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+15.0 | 13.5 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1013 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Tarrance Group | 2006-10-10 | 442 | R+15.0 | 14 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 1 |