Actual result
R+1.9
Final polls said
R+7.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Momentum Analysis | R+4.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | RT Strategies | R+7.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+8.2 | 6.4 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-28 | 400 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1031 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Momentum Analysis | 2006-09-26 | 400 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-09-20 | 400 | R+10.0 | 8 |