Actual result
D+9.8
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | D+2.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+0.1 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Abacus Associates | R+2.0 | 11.8 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 944 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Abacus Associates | 2006-10-22 | 400 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Abacus Associates | 2006-09-16 | 400 | R+5.0 | 15 |