Actual result
D+4.1
Final polls said
R+0.5
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+9.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Jeffrey Stonecash | R+13.0 | 17.1 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Stonecash | 2006-10-29 | 750 | R+13.0 | 17 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-28 | 500 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2006-10-25 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1020 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2006-09-20 | 408 | R+4.0 | 8 |