Actual result
R+4.5
Final polls said
D+5.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+4.3
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | D+2.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+4.3 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Grove Insight | D+9.0 | 13.5 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grove Insight | 2006-10-26 | 400 | D+9.0 | 14 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 999 | D+2.0 | 7 |