Actual result
D+24.1
Final polls said
D+20.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zogby Analytics | D+20.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cooper & Secrest | D+14.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+10.1 | 14.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | RT Strategies | D+9.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | GQR | D+7.0 | 17.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 22.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+20.0 | 4 |
| GQR | 2006-10-10 | 400 | D+7.0 | 17 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+9.0 | 15 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | D+9.0 | 15 |
| Cooper & Secrest | 2006-09-17 | 504 | D+14.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-11 | 400 | D+2.0 | 22 |