Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
R+3.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+2.1 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | R+5.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 4.1 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-30 | 618 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 972 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-15 | 555 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-18 | 497 | R+3.0 | 2 |