Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
R+6.7
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | R+4.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 2 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+4.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Impact Research | R+4.0 | 7.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+7.6 | 11.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+12.0 | 15.9 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 1008 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-10-23 | 400 | R+12.0 | 16 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2006-10-22 | 400 | R+4.0 | 8 |
| Impact Research | 2006-09-19 | 400 | R+4.0 | 8 |