Actual result
D+12.8
Final polls said
D+7.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.2 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+1.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+19.0 | 31.8 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 442 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2006-10-24 | 400 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2006-09-24 | 363 | D+1.0 | 12 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2006-09-12 | 400 | R+19.0 | 32 |