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Toss-up · 2006 House
Pennsylvania House
In the 2006 Pennsylvania House race, Patrick J. Murphy (D) won by less than a point.
Actual result
D+0.6
Final polls said
R+0.4
5 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RT Strategies | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+5.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+9.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Global Strategy Group2006-10-294
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2006-10-266
RT Strategies2006-10-252
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2006-10-2110
Grove Insight2006-10-153
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2006 Pennsylvania House race?
Patrick J. Murphy (D) won, by about 0.6 points (D+0.6).
When was the 2006 Pennsylvania House election held?
It was held in November 2006.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.