Actual result
D+0.6
Final polls said
R+0.4
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+0.9 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Grove Insight | D+4.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+5.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+5.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+9.0 | 9.6 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group | 2006-10-29 | 400 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2006-10-26 | 421 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 994 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2006-10-21 | 336 | R+9.0 | 10 |
| Grove Insight | 2006-10-15 | 400 | D+4.0 | 3 |