Actual result
D+13.8
Final polls said
D+26.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+18.7 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+19.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Clemson University | D+33.0 | 19.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-30 | 530 | D+19.0 | 5 |
| Clemson University | 2006-10-21 | 100 | D+33.0 | 19 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-10 | 408 | D+14.0 | 0 |