Actual result
D+21.7
Final polls said
D+33.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+29.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+29.8 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+33.0 | 11.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Dan Jones & Associates | D+36.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2006-10-31 | 209 | D+33.0 | 11 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2006-09-27 | 300 | D+36.0 | 14 |